If ‘Fast X’ Doesn’t Kick Ass, Hollywood’s World Domination Could Be Over

“Fast X” (Universal) doesn’t look like a breakthrough movie: at best, it could have May’s third-highest domestic opening weekend with $60-70 million. However, the “Fast and Furious” franchise should be – must be – huge in foreign territories. The last three installments got 77% to 82% of their gross from international, with nearly $400 million in China alone.

However, this is the first “Fast” to be released in the post-pandemic environment. Although it has spent the past decade as Hollywood’s top-performing foreign franchise, it’s unclear what that means in 2023. Since Covid, foreign revenue from Hollywood films has struggled. If anything can break the trend, it’s Vin Diesel’s high-octane melodrama about family, loyalty and cars; if not – well, what will?

All existential concerns aside, the tenth entry in the “Fast and Furious” franchise needs the money. It has a reported budget of at least $250 million; Wikipedia lists an unconfirmed amount of $340 million. Either way, covering that nut plus huge marketing spend requires a huge global response.

If Universal gets its wish, it would be a healthy boon at the international box office. Between 2017 and 2019, around two-thirds of the gross was foreign: the average international share of the top 10 studio titles averaged between 63% and 66%. In 2022, this figure has fallen to 59%. In 2023 to date, it is 51%.

Contrast that with global box office performance: In 2022, the domestic box office contributed $7.4 billion, or about 28% of the $26 billion global box office total. In 2018, it was 27%; in 2019, 29%. And yet, only “Avatar: The Way of the Water” and “Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secrets” exceeded a foreign share of 63%; it was at the bottom of the pre-Covid average.

What is the culprit? This suggests an unintended consequence of the Covid shutdowns and delays: foreign territories are now watching more movies that don’t come from Hollywood. Local productions had fewer restrictions and often reopened theaters earlier. This is especially true in China, which has seen three local productions gross over $600 million in the past two years.

It’s also worth noting that comic book movies, which have almost always seen 65% or more of their earnings overseas, have fallen below 60%. “Top Gun: Maverick” earned less than half of its revenue overseas. Even “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is only 56% foreign; for animated films, 67% or more was the norm.

“Furious 7” in 2015 grossed $1.52 billion worldwide with $1.16 billion overseas; “Fate of the Furious” in 2019 grossed $1.24 billion worldwide with just over $1 billion overseas. “F9,” which opened in May 2021, still flimsy, grossed $726 million worldwide, including $553 million overseas.

The reaction in China, where it opened on Wednesday May 17 with previews on Tuesday, will be critical. There, Universal reports that initial shows (including Tuesday) grossed $17.4 million. The last two “Fast” films opened on a Friday in China at $59 million and $68 million, respectively, with opening weekends in that country at $136 million and $192 million. Either way, that was about two-thirds of his eventual Chinese haul.

A total of 12 countries opened on May 17; most of the world (other than Russia) will have the movie by Friday. The overall performance of ‘Fast X’ will be a critical eye-opener: it could suggest Hollywood dominance may be making a comeback – or, it could suggest that budgets for the next ‘Fast’ installment will need a haircut.