Nintendo video game adaptation of Universal and Illumination The movie Super Mario Bros. continues to exceed expectations and is on track to hit a box office high of $1 billion by the first weekend of May or sooner.
I expect that at the end of April, The movie Super Mario Bros. will be somewhere in the $950+ million range. But we have to wait and see how much Mario Brothers. plays against the arrival of Marvel Studios’ latest hit sequel on May 5 to find out if Mario Bros. is actually going to smash $1 billion this weekend.
With South Korea, Japan and Poland still leading the release schedule, The movie Super Mario Bros. seems more likely to land at the higher end of potential, which is how he has behaved throughout. The South Korean and Japanese markets are seeing The movie Super Mario Bros. arriving next weekend, the perfect time for a boost that will likely send the picture over the billion-dollar threshold the same weekend that Marvel kicks off the summer season with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
James Gunn’s final chapter in his popular guardians of the galaxy The trilogy is the longest in the series and seemingly darker in some ways, based on everything we’ve seen and heard about the film so far. How that affects its box office performance remains to be seen, but it tends to mean fewer screenings per day and fewer repeat viewings, especially lately for Marvel and DC superhero movies.
And Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 added expectations following Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s underperformance at the start of the year. It may be unfair, but everyone will try to Guardians to get the MCU back on track at the box office and temper any worries about Marvel or the broader superhero film genre.
For now, all indications are a soft launch for Gunn’s hugely popular and critically acclaimed Marvel project. I hope that holds true, speaking as a fan of the MCU, the Guardians franchise in particular, the superhero genre in general, and Gunn’s work.
My first sight-unseen estimate (but I’ll be at the premiere in Hollywood this week and I’ll have my review for you shortly after) is an opening in the range of $140-150 million for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3but I will have a revised best estimate in my coverage next week.
A softer-than-expected arc or significant drop in the second weekend for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 would set off alarm bells in the MCU, which would be music to Mario’s ears. Not that the Guardians the sequel inherently hurts a lot The movie Super Mario Bros. own box office, but it’s an obvious draw on Mario Brothers.’ primary audience demographics.
Deep in its run and after such huge weekly takes, there’s unlikely to be much left of a big family and animation audience that hasn’t seen The movie Super Mario Bros. in theaters but still intend to do so. Loyalty is another area where the arrival of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will siphon off ticket buyers.
So longer The movie Super Mario Bros. may continue to outperform the remainder of April, and the milder Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 hold on, faster Mario Brothers. rushes through the $1 billion finish line.
But if the reverse happens and The movie Super Mario Bros. finally sees more medium or larger drops, and if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opens even bigger than expected, so it will take a few more days for Nintendo’s animated blockbuster to scoop up a billion dollars.
I anticipate The movie Super Mario Bros. will end its run somewhere in the top 50 highest-grossing films in cinema history, and somewhere in the top 25 highest-grossing animated films of all time.
There should be no doubt that a sequel to The Super Mario Bros. is inevitable, though so far Illumination, Universal, and Nintendo have been quiet about follow-up plans. Maybe they are considering an animation Mario World spin-off series for the Peacock streaming service, to maintain and expand the brand’s popularity during development of a sequel film. It would be a pretty smart game, and something that too few franchises take advantage of adequately in the early stages of their branding.
For one last interesting box office speculation, above the rest of the records and the rise of the charts Mario Brothers. has already realized, if a sequel occurs in the same million-dollar territory, it would also become one of the eight highest-grossing anime franchises in history.
I will continue to follow The movie Super Mario Bros. box office performance throughout the week, and I’ll be back with additional information and revised projections on its billion-dollar trajectory. Likewise, I’ll be keeping an eye on its placement in the 2023 box office race as the year progresses and more major contenders hit theaters.
So be sure to come back here soon, dear readers, for more box office updates, movie reviews and movie news, including my review of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 with my coverage of its Los Angeles premiere and my look at the film’s opening weekend box office expectations.
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